It has been envisaged that about 190,000 lives in Africa could be lost unto the cold hands of coronavirus in the first year of the pandemic if containment measures fail, the World Health Organisation sternly warned on Thursday.
The UN health agency inferred a new study by its regional office in Brazzaville which found that between 83,000 and 190,000 could die and 29 to 44 million be infected by the deadly virus during the period. The research is is coined from prediction modeling, and covers 47 countries with a total population of one billion, the WHO said in its statement.
Experts have consistently warned that Africa is particularly vulnerable to an outbreak, due to weak health infrastructure, high rates of poverty, numerous conflicting beliefs, and a proven susceptibility to previous epidemics. But the virus has been slow to spread across the continent, which has yet not recorded the surging number of infections or deaths seen in places like Europe and the United States.
“The model predicts the observed slower rate of transmission, lower age of people with severe disease and lower mortality rates compared to what is seen in the most affected countries in the rest of the world,” the statement said.
“The lower rate of transmission, however, suggests a more prolonged outbreak over a few years.”
WHO Africa Director Matshidiso Moeti said that “while COVID-19 likely won’t spread as exponentially in Africa as it has elsewhere in the world, it likely will smoulder in transmission hotspots”.
“COVID-19 could become a fixture in our lives for the next several years unless a proactive approach is taken by many governments in the region,” he added. “We need to test, trace, isolate and treat.”
Smaller countries as well as Algeria, South Africa and Cameroon are at high vulnerability unless effective and efficient measures are painstakingly taken to curb the spread of the infectious disease.
Africa has so far recorded 53,334 confirmed cases of the virus with 2,065 fatalities, out of a global death toll of nearly 267,000 according to an AFP tally. Many countries have already put quarantine measures or lockdowns in place, but others have not while some are considering lifting restrictions due to some contingency factors.
Nigeria lifted the lockdown in Africa’s most populous city Lagos earlier this week, while South Africa started easing its measures last w
